By Dr. Ramla Jarrar, Edited by Aziz Ben Hadj Yahia

I’ve had this conversation with retailers more times than I can count: Do catalogs still work?

It’s a fair question. Printing and distributing them is expensive – glossy pages, full-color spreads, and the logistics of getting them into the right hands all add up. And with digital marketing offering so many ways to track customer engagement, catalogs can feel like a bit of a relic.

But here’s the thing: time and time again, I’ve seen that catalogs do work – when done right. The key isn’t just throwing them out there and hoping for the best. It’s measuring their impact properly and optimizing how they’re used.

That’s where Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) comes in. It helps answer critical questions:

• Are catalogs actually driving sales, or are people just buying regardless?
• Which areas/geographies respond best to catalog distribution?
• Can we cut back on them without hurting revenue?
• What should we feature in them to maximize impact?

I’ve worked with retailers who made big budget cuts on catalogs, only to find out later -through MMM – that those cuts cost them millions in lost sales. Others have fine-tuned their catalog strategy using data and seen much better results with less spend.

In this article, I’ll walk through the challenges of measuring catalog effectiveness, the key metrics to track, and how MMM can help retailers make smarter decisions about one of their longest-standing marketing tools.

The Role of Catalogs in Retail Marketing

Walk into almost any supermarket, clothing store, or electronics retailer, and chances are you’ll see a stack of catalogs near the entrance. Or maybe you’ve had one land in your mailbox, packed with discounts and special offers.

Catalogs (sometimes called leaflets) have been a core part of retail marketing for decades. They serve a simple but powerful purpose: they bring people into stores and influence what they buy. Unlike digital ads that can be scrolled past in seconds, catalogs physically stay with the customer. They get pinned to refrigerators, flipped through over breakfast, or tucked into a bag for later.

But what makes them so valuable?

First, they grab attention at the right moment – when people are already thinking about shopping. A well-placed catalog can introduce new products, highlight promotions, or remind customers of an upcoming sale.

Second, they offer a tactile experience. In a world dominated by screens, there’s something about holding a printed catalog that makes it more engaging. Research has shown that physical materials tend to be more memorable than digital ones.

And third, they help drive foot traffic. Many retailers use catalogs strategically, targeting specific neighborhoods or customer segments. Whether it’s handing them out in-store, mailing them to certain zip codes, or slipping them into newspapers, distribution plays a key role in their effectiveness.

Of course, times have changed. Digital marketing has taken over a huge share of budgets, and some retailers have questioned whether catalogs are still worth the investment. But from what I’ve seen, catalogs aren’t the problem—it’s how they’re used and measured.

Some regions respond better than others, certain types of offers work better in print, and the volume of distribution can make or break their effectiveness.

That’s why retailers shouldn’t just ask “Should we use catalogs?” but rather, “How can we use them smarter?” That’s where measurement comes in—and that’s what we’ll dive into next.

The Challenges of Measuring Catalog Performance

Measuring the impact of digital ads is relatively straightforward—clicks, impressions, conversions—are easily obtainable. But with catalogs? That’s where things get tricky.

I’ve seen retailers struggle with this because, unlike digital marketing, there’s no built-in analytics dashboard for print distribution. When a customer walks into a store and makes a purchase, how do we know if a catalog influenced that decision? Did they see an ad online first? Would they have come anyway? These are tough questions, but they need answers – especially when catalog campaigns take up such a large share of marketing budgets.

Here are some of the biggest challenges retailers face when trying to measure catalog effectiveness:

1. High Costs and Budget Pressures

Catalogs aren’t cheap. Between design, printing, and distribution, the costs can be as high as—or even bigger than—a retailer’s digital media budget. And with rising paper and printing costs, many companies are looking for ways to cut back.

2. Attribution: What Actually Drives Sales

One of the biggest problems with measuring catalogs is figuring out whether they were the real reason behind a sale. A customer might receive a catalog in the mail, but then see a Facebook ad, hear about a discount from a friend, or just happen to visit the store out of habit. Unlike digital marketing, where every click can be tracked, catalogs don’t leave a digital footprint.

3. Regional Variability: Not All Areas Respond the Same Way

Some neighborhoods respond really well to catalogs—others, not so much. I’ve worked with retailers who saw a huge uplift in sales when distributing catalogs in certain regions, while in others, they had almost no impact. Without granular measurement, companies risk wasting money on catalog distribution in areas where they don’t actually move the needle.

4. Consumer Behavior is Changing

Let’s be honest—how many of us flip through every catalog we receive? Some demographics still rely on them heavily (think older shoppers or families planning weekly grocery trips), but younger consumers may be more likely to check deals online. This shift makes it even more important to measure who engages with catalogs and where they are most effective.

5. Lack of Granular Data

Retailers often don’t have structured data on their catalog distribution—how many were sent, where they were sent, and whether they were picked up in-store or mailed. Without this level of detail, it’s hard to run proper analysis and make data-driven decisions.

These challenges are exactly why a solid measurement approach is needed. And this is where Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) comes in—it helps break down catalog performance by region, store, and even customer segments to see what’s really working. Next, let’s dive into how to measure catalog effectiveness the right way.

Key Metrics to Evaluate Catalog Effectiveness

If you’re investing in catalog advertising, you need to know whether it’s actually driving results. But because catalogs don’t come with built-in tracking like digital ads, retailers often rely on guesswork—or worse, assume they work without measuring properly. That’s a risky approach.

From experience, I’ve seen that when retailers track the right metrics, they get a much clearer picture of whether catalogs are worth the spend and how to optimize them. Here are the key metrics that can help make informed decisions:

Redemption Rates (For Coupons or QR Codes)

One of the simplest ways to track catalog performance is by including a coupon code, QR code, or unique promo code and measuring how many people redeem it. While this doesn’t capture every catalog-driven sale (since not all customers redeem coupons), it provides a tangible way to link catalogs to purchases.

Foot Traffic Impact

Catalogs are often designed to get people into stores. So a key metric to track is changes in foot traffic in areas where catalogs were distributed. Did stores see an increase in visitors after a catalog campaign? Comparing traffic data before and after distribution—or against stores that didn’t receive catalogs—can give valuable insights into their impact.

Incremental Sales Lift

The real question isn’t just whether people visited the store, but whether they spent more because of the catalog. Incremental sales lift measures how much additional revenue was generated as a direct result of catalog distribution. This is where techniques like Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) come in, helping to isolate the true impact of catalogs from other factors like promotions, seasonality, or competitor activity.

Halo Effects on Other Products

Sometimes, a catalog promotion might focus on specific products, but it also drives sales of related items. This is known as the halo effect. For example, a catalog featuring a discount on wine might also boost sales of cheese and snacks. By analyzing category-wide sales, retailers can measure whether catalogs influence purchases beyond just the advertised products.

ROI (Return on Investment)

At the end of the day, it all comes down to whether catalogs are generating more revenue than they cost. ROI = (Revenue Generated – Cost of Catalogs) / Cost of Catalogs. This calculation helps retailers decide whether they should continue, scale back, or optimize their catalog strategy.

Regional Performance Analysis

Not all areas respond to catalogs the same way. Some neighborhoods might see a huge lift in sales, while others don’t react at all. By analyzing performance by zip code, store location, or region, retailers can identify where catalogs work best and adjust distribution accordingly.

Engagement Metrics (Time Spent & Interaction with Catalogs)

Although harder to measure, some retailers conduct customer surveys or focus groups to understand how people interact with their catalogs. Do customers read them, keep them for later, or toss them immediately? Are certain designs, layouts, or offers more engaging? These insights can help improve catalog effectiveness.

Using Marketing Mix Modeling to Measure Catalog Impact

One of the biggest challenges with catalogs is figuring out how much of their impact is real versus what would have happened anyway. That’s where Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) comes in.

MMM is a data-driven approach that helps isolate the effect of each marketing channel—including catalogs—on sales. Instead of relying on assumptions, it uses statistical analysis to measure how much revenue can actually be attributed to catalog distribution, while accounting for other factors like promotions, seasonality, and competitor activity.

Here’s how MMM helps measure catalog effectiveness:

1. Store-by-Store Analysis: Measuring Local Impact

Not all stores benefit equally from catalog distribution. Some locations might see a huge uplift, while others barely move the needle. MMM can analyze sales performance at an individual store level, helping retailers understand:

• Which stores need catalog distribution to maintain strong sales.
• Which stores can handle a reduction without a noticeable drop.
• Whether catalog-driven sales justify the costs in certain regions.

2. Geographic Sensitivity: Where Do Catalogs Work Best?

MMM can break down regional effectiveness by comparing sales in areas where catalogs were distributed versus those where they weren’t. This helps identify:

• High-response areas where catalogs are essential.
• Low-response areas where distribution can be scaled back.
• The impact of local demographics and shopping behavior on catalog success.

3. Incremental Sales Lift: Proving True Impact

Retailers often assume catalogs work, but the real test is whether they generate incremental sales—meaning sales that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. MMM isolates this effect by:

• Controlling for other marketing activities (e.g., digital ads, TV, social media).
• Adjusting for seasonality (e.g., holiday sales spikes).
• Comparing sales trends before, during, and after catalog campaigns.

By doing this, MMM helps retailers avoid false positives—situations where sales would have increased anyway, even without catalogs.

4. Experimentation & A/B Testing: Optimizing Distribution
One of the best ways to measure catalog impact is through controlled experiments. MMM allows retailers to

One of the best ways to measure catalog impact is through controlled experiments. MMM allows retailers to test different scenarios, such as:

• Cutting catalogs in select regions to see if sales drop.
• Reducing catalog volume in some stores while keeping it steady in others.
• Adjusting the timing of catalog distribution to find the most effective periods.

This kind of testing helps retailers fine-tune their strategy, ensuring they aren’t wasting money on unnecessary distribution.

5. Page Count & Content Analysis: What Works Best

Not all catalogs are created equal. Some are 20 pages, some are 40 pages—but is the extra length worth the added cost? MMM can analyze:

• Whether longer catalogs lead to higher engagement and sales.
• Which types of promotions (e.g., discounts, new product launches) work best.
• The halo effect—how featuring certain products influences purchases across categories.

6. ROI Calculations: Is It Worth the Investment?

At the end of the day, MMM helps answer the ultimate question: Are catalogs delivering a positive return on investment (ROI)?

• If catalogs drive significant incremental revenue, they should be maintained or optimized.
• If their impact is low in certain areas, budget can be reallocated elsewhere.

Why MMM is Essential for Measuring Catalog Impact

Without MMM, retailers risk making blind decisions—either cutting catalogs when they actually work or overspending in areas where they don’t. By leveraging granular data, regional analysis, and controlled testing, MMM provides the clarity needed to optimize catalog strategy and maximize ROI.

Best Practices for Measuring and Optimizing Catalog Advertising

Without MMM, retailers risk making blind decisions—either cutting catalogs when they actually work or overspending in areas where they don’t. By leveraging granular data, regional analysis, and controlled testing, MMM provides the clarity needed to optimize catalog strategy and maximize ROI.

Here are some best practices to help retailers get the most out of their catalog campaigns:

1. Track Performance with Data, Not Assumptions

Too many businesses assume catalogs work—or assume they don’t—without looking at the numbers. The key is to collect and analyze hard data:

• Sales trends before, during, and after catalog distribution.
• Foot traffic in stores with and without catalog campaigns.
• Regional differences in response rates.
• Customer engagement with catalog offers (e.g., coupon redemptions, QR code scans).

Without tracking, it’s impossible to know what’s working and what’s not.

2. Use a Test-and-Learn Approach

One of the best ways to optimize catalog advertising is through controlled experiments:

• A/B Testing: Reduce catalog distribution in select areas while keeping it steady elsewhere—then compare sales impact.
• Timing Adjustments: Test sending catalogs at different times of the month to see when they drive the most store visits.
• Content Variation: Try different messaging, layouts, and promotions to see what resonates most with customers.

Retailers who regularly test and refine their approach save money while maintaining (or even increasing) effectiveness.

3. Focus on the Right Locations

Not every region or store needs the same level of catalog distribution. Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) can help identify:

• High-response zones where catalogs should be maintained or expanded.
• Low-response areas where distribution can be scaled back.
• Stores that perform well without catalogs, allowing for cost savings.

By optimizing distribution, retailers can cut unnecessary costs while maximizing sales impact.

4. Make Catalogs Measurable

One of the biggest challenges with catalogs is tracking their direct impact. Here are some ways to make them more measurable:

• Unique promo codes or barcodes that customers must use at checkout.
• QR codes that lead to a special landing page, tracking online engagement.
• Customer surveys at checkout asking how they heard about a promotion.

These small changes can provide valuable data on catalog performance.

5. Analyze Content and Page Length

Not all catalogs perform the same. Some key questions retailers should test:

• Do larger catalogs (e.g., 40 pages) perform better than smaller ones (e.g., 20 pages)?
• Which product categories generate the highest response?
• Are certain layouts, images, or discounts more effective?

Understanding which elements drive engagement allows retailers to improve catalog design and messaging.

6. Balance Print and Digital Integration

Catalogs don’t have to work in isolation. Smart retailers connect them with digital channels:

• Use catalogs to drive online traffic through exclusive QR code offers.
• Retarget catalog recipients with digital ads for better brand reinforcement.
• Measure catalog effectiveness by comparing in-store vs. online sales uplift.

Blending print and digital marketing creates a more cohesive customer journey and improves overall performance.

7. Continuously Adjust Based on Insights

Measuring catalog effectiveness isn’t a one-time exercise—it’s an ongoing process. Regularly reviewing performance data and adjusting distribution, design, and messaging ensures catalogs remain a profitable marketing tool rather than a wasted cost.

Conclusion

Catalog advertising isn’t dead—but blindly spending on it without measurement should be.

I’ve seen retailers slash catalog budgets, thinking they were cutting unnecessary costs, only to realize later (through hard data) that they had lost millions in sales. I’ve also seen retailers who fine-tuned their catalog strategy—reducing waste, optimizing distribution, and tracking real impact—end up with a much more efficient and profitable approach.

The key takeaway? It’s not about whether catalogs work—it’s about making them work smarter.
By using marketing mix modeling and a data-driven mindset, retailers can:

✅ Identify where catalogs drive the most impact.

✅ Cut waste in areas where they don’t move the needle.

✅ Optimize distribution and messaging for better returns.

✅ Measure true ROI instead of relying on assumptions.

Retail marketing is evolving, and so should the way we measure and optimize traditional channels like catalogs. With the right approach, retailers don’t have to choose between cutting costs and driving sales – they can do both.

References

• Retail Marketing and Branding: A Definitive Guide to Maximizing ROI, 2nd Edition | Wiley
• How Paper Catalogs Remain Relevant in a Digital Age
• Why Catalogs Are Making a Comeback
• Webinar: Unlock the Power of Catalogue Marketing | DMA
• What is ‘The’ Response Rate From Catalog Distribution? (Revised Edition) | What is ‘The’ Response Rate From Catalog Distribution? (Revised Edition) | DMA
• 10 Reasons Why Catalogs Are a Marketing Powerhouse | USPS Delivers
• Retail advertising: digital and independent – EHI Retail Institute
• Why paper catalogs still matter | Retail Dive